Willing to wine (600702): willing to continue steady growth
The revenue in the first quarter of 19 exceeded market expectations, and the profit exceeded market expectations. The willing wine industry announced its first quarter of 19 results, with revenue of 6.9.7 billion, an increase of 34.1%, net profit attributable to mother 1.01 trillion, with the same increase of 21.5%, corresponding to EPS 0.30 yuan.The revenue exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the company’s price increase after the Spring Festival, and dealers made advance payment and stocking.The lower-than-expected profit was mainly due to the substantial increase in advertising expenses. Development Trend The traditional advantage market experienced a continuous explosive growth, and then turned into a stable growth stage of about 20%.2016?In the past 18 years, the company has continuously achieved 60? In the northern prefecture-level market (Zhengzhou, Liyang, Liaocheng, etc.) with traditional advantages.The high growth rate of 100% mainly comes from the company’s refined channel coverage and the possibility of rapid expansion of the next high-end.The current further growth is mainly due to the expansion of the sub-high-end consumer group and the improvement of the company’s 夜来香体验网 marketing management. The growth rate is relatively stable. National expansion continues, but the pace is slightly slower than expected.The company’s regional expansion strategy is resolute. It has also experienced a round of national investment promotion in the past two years, but the new markets that ultimately operate better are mainly concentrated around the traditional advantage markets, and the performance in the central and southern provinces is average. Due to the relative lack of well-known nationalization, as well as the manpower and high cost of manufacturers changing channel operation models, it is difficult to quickly complete an effective channel operation layout in a wider region. The company is still in the expense period, with additional profits from current revenue.Company 20?The scale of 3 billion US dollars is small, and there is no advantage in a single province.And in most provinces and cities, there is a lack of brand influence, and it is necessary to continue to spend expenses on consumer cultivation and channel expansion, and do large-scale as soon as possible to increase the influence in the next high-end. Earnings forecast is reduced due to the increase in selling expenses and the distribution of incentive expenses, which is reduced by EPS12 for 19/20.2% / 0.6% to 1.19/1.70 yuan. Estimates and recommendations maintain target price of 34.2 yuan, corresponding to 28 in 19/20.7/20.1x PE, current price corresponds to 19/20 24.4/17.1x PE with a target price of 17.7% growth space, maintain recommendation. The risk of sub-high-end competition has intensified significantly, and the willingness to panic in the expansion of nationalization is expected.