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Qilian Mountain (600720): Q4 surpasses the expected infrastructure flexibility

Qilian Mountain (600720): Q4 surpasses the expected infrastructure flexibility
This report reads: As the leader of Qinghai Cement in Gansu, the company was profitable for the first time in three years in 18Q4. Investment Highlights: The first coverage is given an “overweight” rating.The company achieved revenue of 57 in 2018.75 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.25%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 6.55 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.93%, EPS is 0.84 yuan / share, in line with market expectations.We predict an EPS of 1 for 2019-2021.03, 1.20, 1.36 yuan, based on the average PE of comparable companies in 2019, PB estimates to give a target price of 11.20 yuan. The shortcomings of infrastructure construction in Qinghai, Gansu, have made their first appearance.In July 2018, the National People’s Congress called for a shortfall in infrastructure construction, and Q3 began to see a clear recovery in infrastructure demand.The company is the largest cement enterprise in Qinghai, Gansu. From the perspective of the company’s sales volume, the company continues to sell cement 厦门夜网 clinker for 1,927 placements, replacing 10 each time.5%; but from the quarterly ten-year growth rate, 2018Q1-2018Q4 were -30.00%, -14.32%, -8.77%, 0.40%, the growth rate declines narrowed quarter by quarter, Q4 has resumed growth. Sources of performance growth prices rose.We estimate that the company’s average factory price at the beginning of 2018 was about 273 yuan / ton, an increase of 19 yuan / ton over; gross profit of 90 yuan per ton, an increase of 12 yuan / ton; net profit per ton of 36 yuan / ton, an increase of 13 yuan / ton.Among them, Q4 was affected by the suspension of the wrong peak. The average factory price was 249 yuan / ton, the gross profit per ton was 79 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton was 33 yuan / ton. For the first time in nearly three years in the fourth quarter, it achieved profit.We judge that with the continued development of infrastructure demand in 2019, regional profitability will try to reach a higher level. Comprehensive expectation of cement assets.Benefiting from the “two-material merger” (qilianshan, tianshan, ningxia building materials industry competition), the company’s cement capacity storage integration is expected. Risk warning: raw material prices rise, macroeconomic decline